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The Drake Equation

From Wikipedia:

The Drake equation is:



N = the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which communication might be possible (i.e. which are on our current past light cone);


R = the average rate of star formation in our Galaxy
fp = the fraction of those stars that have planets
ne = the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets
fl = the fraction of planets that could support life that actually develop life at some point
fi = the fraction of planets with life that actually go on to develop intelligent life (civilizations)
fc = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space
L = the length of time for which such civilizations release detectable signals into space

In the Drake equation, I’m a bit of an ET-naysayer, I had really underestimated R. The Milky Way is a li’l bit bigger than I thought.

I feel like fl, fi, fc might well be reasonably high but that ne might be overestimated. The Earth really is precious. ♥︎

Anthropic bias is a 🐝.

My thinking is that fl, fi, fc have evolution on their side which ne doesn’t really. It “just” has stochastics and selection, which the genetic algorithm has other stuff going for it too (talking about sex).

L, I’m not so sure of. Maybe if the ETs can dodge space-capitalism.